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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."